More Coal -- Is That Good News?

" African Energy Resources recently confirmed a major thermal coal discovery in land-locked Botswana. Some 2.7 billion tonnes of the stuff if you don’t mind."  Confirmation that it was big – and capable of growing bigger still. But with the Indians stomping around Africa looking for new long-term coal supplies, it’s a fair bet that interest in AFR is not over yet.

The Indians themselves reckon that apart from its indigenous coal supplies, it will need 150-200 million tonnes of additional imports by 2025 to meet the electrification demands of the population."

India getting long term contracts for coal imports to power their economic growth is not good news for the prospects of the world's nations to control the growth of atmospheric CO2.  The desire of India to produce electricity is very understandable. Electricity is the basis for industry, and is fundamental to living the modern middle class life. One billion people in India want to have that modern life. The government of India and its energy companies must ensure that happens. 

However, the long term impact on the planet and on India will be very dire. 

Atmospheric CO2 is at 393 ppm and growing at 2.5 ppm per year. The level during the Pliocene matched our current levels. The oceans were 90 feet deeper than today. That means that even if we stabilized CO2 levels at the current level, that Greenland and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would eventually melt raising the oceans about 90 feet. 

That will be catastrophic. No Bangladesh. The cities of Mumbai, Surat, Karachi, Hyderabad, Goa,  Chennai, Calcutta, Bangkok, Saigon, Shangai, Seoul, Tokyo, Washington D.C., and many other coastal cities will be underwater.  River delta regions around the globe will be flooded along with the immense food production currently produced. 

Now this may seem unthinkable. But it is important to understand how CO2 works in the atmosphere. CO2 helps trap solar energy by reducing the amount of heat that can be radiated back into space. This impact can presently be measured. On a clear night, the air stays slightly warmer than it used to, since less heat can be radiated out into space. 

Now the retention of this heat energy is cumulative. Each year more heat is retained, raising the heat energy stored in the oceans and atmosphere. Each year, the Earth gets a little bit warmer. Just as the growth of a child is not noticeable day-to-day, the effect of the additional heat is not noticeable year-to-year. And just as a child grows to become an adult, the constant currently high level of CO2 will bring on a Pliocene like climate. 

During the Pliocene, there was no ice in the Arctic, and there were tropical plants in Canada.  

Hearing that India is contracting with African countries to guarantee its future supply of coal is not good news.  How can the global community make any progress on eliminating fossil fuel use if commitments like these are being made? 

No one intends on making this happen. But, by not looking at the evidence and learning to understand the long term effects of climate change, we are committing our planet to a very different future than we have known. Each year that goes by without a global commitment to that change, will make our future efforts that much more difficult.