Arctic: Arctic Melt Progresses

The Arctic ice cap continues to melt following the same pattern seen since 2007.  The Arctic is about one million square kilometers under the average ice cover.  An area the size of Texas and New Mexico combined is open water now, that used to be covered in ice.  This area added open water area is absorbing solar radiation and further warming the Arctic. This solar heating feedback has been in place since  2007.

Earlier this spring, much of the ice cover was at less than 100% coverage, indicating thin and easily melted ice. This created the expectation that a new record low in summer ice area would be set this coming September. The current conditions point towards coming close, and maybe just passing the record low of 2007.

As interesting as it is to watch for records to be broken, it is more important to be aware of the recurring pattern we have seen each year since 2007.  Each summer since then, the Kara, Leptev, East Siberian, Chuchki, and Beaufort seas have become virtually ice free. Not long ago, these seas were mostly ice bound year round. These shallow seas are now absorbing solar energy each summer that they did not before. This feedback loop is expected to continue, and in time, to lead to the complete melting of the Arctic in the summer. 

Notice the areas colored red, yellow, orange, and green. Those are areas where the ice is covering the water at less than 100%. Sea Ice Extent data includes those areas as within the extent area, giving a false impression of the amount of ice. Because these areas of less than 100% ice coverage are within the Arctic Basin, I expect some significant melting to occur this year or next. At the end of each of the recent summers, the Arctic Basin melted back from its area of 4 msk to about 2.5 msk, with the rest of the Arctic Ocean being mostly ice free, giving a total ice area of 3.0 msk. The Arctic Basin is the next area to begin showing year to year increased open ocean when the annual summer ice minimum is reached. 

The climatologists differ on their projections of when the summer ice minimum will be zero.  Some say 2020. Some say 2030. Some say 2040. A few years ago, many said 2100, but almost none say that now. From a climate change point of view, Whether it happens in 2020, 2030, or 2040, matters little. The main thing is that continued global warming is projected, and no process is known that may reverse the trend. The past increase in atmospheric CO2 to today's level of 393 ppm is seen as the only explanation for the recent warming.

Projected levels of CO2 to 415 ppm by 2020, 445 by 2030, and 475 by 2040, points to not only continued global warming, but to an increased  rate of warming.  CO2 is expected to rise at 3 ppm per year at least if nothing is done.

How warm will it get before it stabilizes? That is the big question. If it stabilizes at the type of climate that existed the last time the Earth had 400 ppm in its atmosphere, then that would be the climate of the Pliocene.  The Pliocene was 3.5 mya. The climate was much warmer. There was no ice on Greenland. Antarctica had less ice. The oceans were 30 meters (90 ft) deeper.

It could stabilize at a level not as warm as the Pliocene with more ice being retained.  However, CO2 levels will soon be going far above the levels seen in the Pliocene.

What do you think are the possible and likely results?  

Arctic Losing Winter Sea Ice...New and Alarming Trend..

Recent View of Arctic

    Cryosphere Today website
The Cryosphere Today website is very interesting, I recommend it.  The above image was taken from it. What it shows is actually quite disturbing. 

Every winter the Arctic sea ice extends and freezes its normal maximum area of about 14 million square kilometers (msk).  That is normal for now. If you go back to 1980, the Arctic normally reached a maximum ice are over 16msk.  In any case, the area that was frozen over would be completely covered with ice. 

The completeness of the ice coverage can be seen by the color given to the ice by the Cryosphere Today website. 

Arctic View winter before the great melt
Compare the two images from February 24th 2007 and 2011.  See the difference?  The 2007 image is a solid purple. That means that the Ocean is completely covered with ice -- 100%. That is good.  That is to be expected. After all, in 1980, the average ice thickness was 17 ft, and was primarily multi-year ice. 

The 2011 image is NOT solid purple.  The Arctic is NOT completely covered in ice. The ice concentration is less than 100%.  The colors indicate that the concentration is 95%, 90%, and as low as 80%.  Water is actually exposed to the air in those places. If you were to be walking there, you could drown. 

This is extraordinary.  Remember the image for 2007 shows the condition of the Arctic in the year when a summer ice minimum of 3msk was reached.  That was a serious meltback that blew away previous records by one million sq. kilometers! When that happened, climatologists rushed to their models to update them. None of the climate models predicted that huge meltback.  

But, even that year showed 100% ice coverage the preceeding winter.  This winter is different.  What does it portend?

First, I think the there should be a huge meltback this summer, easily beating the 2007 record.  I would not be surprised to see a summer ice minimum of 2msk. 

Secondly, I see a trend towards less and less winter ice. The loss of sea ice area until now has shown a decrease in area at the margins.  Now it is losing ice throughout, and it is doing it in WINTER!  If the cold Arctic air cannot freeze the ocean in the winter, then that means that Arctic Ocean is becoming to warm to freeze. 

Note Hudson Bay. It did not freeze over until January, two months late. But, it did freeze over. Note that its color is a solid purple, so it ishows 100% sea ice concentration. It may be thin ice, but it covers completely.  The Arctic is not doing that. 

Now another thing that may be happening is wave action. The Arctic is an ocean which means waves.  If the ice is not thick enough, then wave action will break it up.  So we might be seeing the development of ice and water mixture, a sort of ocean slushy.  This may be just as bad as having the ice melted, from an albedo effect.  If you notice, broken up ice floating in water, becomes clear and takes on the color of the water.  So, ice reflectivity is lost.  Sunlight, when it comes in the spring, will start being absorbed before the ice gets fully melted. 

As there is less summer ice, more solar energy is absorbed, warming the ocean that much faster. 

Now as the ocean warms, then the winter ice concentration should be expected to decline.  Now it is at 95% over much of the area.  In future years, may it go down to 90%, 80%, and even lower.  If this trend continues long enough, shouldn't we expect to see an ice free Arctic in the winter?  It might take several hundred years to reach that condition, but unless something happens to reverse the underlying conditions causing the trend, then how can it be avoided? 

Impact on Greenland
The importance of Arctic ice loss is on loss of albedo and the warming of the Arctic Ocean. The reason why that is important is that is where the climate of Greenland is determined.  When ice is year around to the north of Greenland, then all the weather coming to Greenland is freezing during the entire year. The ice cap is safe. 

However, when the Arctic ocean is open water, it is above freezing.  Thus, all weather systems going over it to Greenland become above freezing.  Greenland melts. The less ice, and the warmer the ocean, the warmer the air, and the faster Greenland melts. 

The climatologists foresaw an ice free summer Arctic happening soon. Maybe as soon as 2020.  However, none foresee an ice free WINTER Arctic!.  This could mean that Greenland's melt season would be year around. Not just for a few months in the summer. 

If that happens -- HYPER MELT time.  Now we could be talking about accelerating the melting of Greenlands ice cap by orders of magnitude.  To me, an increase of melting by 100 times more the current melt rate would not be surprising. 

This may seem extreme, but it is just a matter of deduction.  Think about it.